Friday, February 23, 2007

the gay Superbowl

Ah, it’s time for the Oscars again…and, just like I have for the last couple of decades, I’ll be spending the entire telecast hunkered down on the couch, eating junk food, mocking and/or coveting the outfits, and swearing a blue streak whenever what I consider to be an unworthy candidate (cf. Crash) wins an award.

I always like to predict the winners, so here are my picks. These are the ones I think will win, not the ones I want to win. Obviously, I haven’t seen every single nominee, so I’m going by reviews, the opinions of various pundits, and sheer guesswork.

BEST PICTURE: Babel, Little Miss Sunshine, The Departed, The Queen, Letters from Iwo Jima

MY GUESS: Well, I’ve only seen Little Miss Sunshine, and although I loved it, I don’t think it will win because comedies always take a backseat to dramas as far as the Oscars are concerned. Personally, I think they should have separate categories for dramas and comedies/musicals, just like the Golden Globes, but whatever. I’m thinking Babel will either sweep or get completely shut out, and my money’s on the latter because I’ve heard it’s too similar in theme to last year’s winner, Crash. Therefore, it will be The Departed.

BEST DIRECTOR: Paul Greengrass (United 93), Clint Eastwood Letters from Iwo Jima, Stephen Frears (The Queen), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu (Babel), Martin Scorcese (The Departed)

MY GUESS: Martin Scorcese. He’s never won, so this will be his year.

BEST ACTOR: Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson), Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland), Peter O’Toole (Venus), Leonardo Di Caprio (Blood Diamond), Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness)

MY GUESS: Everyone’s saying that Leonardo Di Caprio should have been nominated for The Departed instead, so he’s out. Ryan Gosling is supposed to be amazing, but who saw that movie? Will Smith is a possible spoiler, but I’m going to say no. Peter O’Toole is a possibility because he’s been nominated so many times and never won once, aside from an honorary Oscar, but again, who saw that movie? That leaves Forest Whitaker for the win.

(And by the way, I can never see Peter O’Toole’s name without thinking of John Waters’ quip: “Is there a filthier name than Peter O’Toole? What’s the female equivalent, Muff O’Clit?”)

BEST ACTRESS: Penelope Cruz (Volver), Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal), Helen Mirren (The Queen), Kate Winslet (Little Children), Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)

MY GUESS: There is absolutely no way anyone but Helen Mirren will win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine), Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children), Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond), Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls), Mark Wahlberg (The Departed)

MY GUESS: I’ve heard that Eddie Murphy is fantastic, but some people think he screwed the pooch by releasing Norbit so close to the Oscars. Hollywood loves a comeback story, so Jackie Earle Haley can’t be ruled out, but I’m going to say it will be Mark Wahlberg. Dear God, let it be Mark Wahlberg, and please let him thank the Funky Bunch.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Adriana Barraza (Babel), Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal), Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine), Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls), Rinko Kikuchi (Babel)

MY GUESS: This always seems to be the category with the biggest surprise. Jennifer Hudson’s the favorite, but the voters may not reward her for what’s essentially more of a singing role than an acting role. Whenever two people from the same movie are nominated in the same category, they usually cancel each other out, but I’m still going with Rinko Kikuchi for Babel.

I can’t be arsed to type out every single nominee for the “lesser” categories, but I’ll give you my predictions. Full list of nominees here.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Little Miss Sunshine probably won’t win in any of its other categories, so barring a Babel sweep, it will grab this one.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: As much as I’d like to see Borat win, especially after Sascha Baron Cohen’s hysterical Golden Globes acceptance speech, it will be The Departed. And they better give a nod to the writers of Infernal Affairs, the Hong Kong masterpiece on which it was based. ‘Nuff respect to my HK peeps!

CINEMATOGRAPHY: I haven’t seen it, but everyone who has raves about its cinematography, so I’m going with Children of Men.


ART DIRECTION: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

COSTUME DESIGN: It damn well better be Marie Antoinette.


ORIGINAL SONG: “Listen” from Dreamgirls

MAKEUP: Pan’s Labyrinth has this one sewn up. I mean, really, CLICK?

SOUND: Dreamgirls

SOUND EDITING: Letters from Iwo Jima

VISUAL EFFECTS: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: They might as well just hand this to Pixar every year; no way it won’t be Cars. I was happy to see Monster House get a nod, though; maybe that will get more people to see it.


DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: An Inconvenient Truth


ANIMATED SHORT: The Little Matchgirl

LIVE SHORT: West Bank Story


BEST DRESSED: Cate Blanchett

WORST DRESSED: Rinko Kikuchi, because she seems to show up on Go Fug Yourself every other day.



NUMBER OF TOM CRUISE/KATIE HOLMES/SURI JOKES: Are you kidding? None! That crazy bastard is sue-happy!